As India heads inexorably towards an early election, probably in the spring of 2008, all leading players have begun to weigh their likely gains or losses. Light-hearted banter among MPs cannot hide the trepidation with which most of them are helplessly watching the 14th Lok Sabha head towards dissolution ahead of time. In Parliament's smoking room, the only place within its portals that practices "classless, party-less democracy" in the words of an MP from the North-East, we Rajya Sabha members have been at the receiving end of our Lok Sabha colleagues' ire. "Aap logon ka kya hai, mauj kijiye. Chunav hum ladtey hain, khoon-pasina, paisa hum bahatey hain, aur aap log aaram se hamare Sadan ko bhang kar detey hain (What's it to you? Keep having fun. We fight elections, we struggle hard, spend money. And you people casually decide to get our House dissolved)" was the angry retort of a harassed MP when he found others gleefully discussing the possible configuration of the 15th Lok Sabha.

His reaction was not entirely without basis. It is being widely said that two persons who have never faced a serious election in their entire career are primarily responsible for the present impasse. In fairness, Prakash Karat did contest an election way back in the early 1970s when he was chosen the first president of the JNU Students' Union. He apparently lost his re-election bid because of his dogmatism, refusing to compromise and make adjustments with those less strident about their ideological convictions. In other words, the scholarly and erudite CPI(M) general secretary, who has restored the primacy of ideology in his party after the gross deviations of the Surjeet era, has never regarded politics merely as the "art of the possible". Probably that explains why Karat never contested another election.

The second lead protagonist, Manmohan Singh, did a little better on that score. Despite the controversy surrounding his declaration about being "ordinarily resident" in Assam as a tenant of former Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia in order to win a Rajya Sabha seat, he valiantly attempted to enter the Lok Sabha in 1999. Dr Singh was the Congress candidate from South Delhi, but his inability to master the art of poll-management or spend a fortune, besides his indifferent communication skills, caused his doughty opponent BJP's VK Malhotra to easily trounce him. Manmohan Singh has not attempted the contest a direct election thereafter. That makes neither Prakash Karat or the Prime Minister any less qualified to handle the country's political destiny, but the average Lok Sabha MPs' angst is understandable nevertheless. Even in the CPM, there have been disaffected voices from Bengal, mutedly complaining about the "dictatorship of Rajya Sabha people," a dig at Sitaram Yechury and Brinda Karat, both members of the Upper House from that State.

Interestingly, anxiety is writ large on the faces of MPs cutting across partylines. Although there is a general consensus that the Congress may have come out the best among all the major players in the nuclear deal controversy, not all party MPs share this view. A senior Minister confided the other day: "We should not get carried away by phony opinion polls, TV anchors and editorial writers. The closer we get to polling day, Muslim opinion will crystallise against us because of the perceived association with the US. I fear I may not be able to enter many Muslim pockets in my constituency to campaign." Despite the apparently smiling faces of Congressmen in Parliament's Central Hall, it is clear that the party's leaders are worried. That explains the sudden onrush of community oriented job schemes ostensibly aimed at counter-balancing anticipated Muslim resentment against the nuclear deal. In other words, the Congress is conscious of the possible averse electoral fallout of going through with the deal despite urban middle class enthusiasm for it.

As the BJP learnt to its cost in 2004, the middle class is notoriously fickle; in spite of being the main beneficiary of "India Shining" it did not turn up at the polling booths, which slashed the BJP's 1999 tally of 56 urban seats to a paltry 14. But the Congress can seek some comfort from the likelihood of the BJP being a victim of anti-incumbency sentiment in several big States like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. On the other hand, the Congress cannot expect to sweep Andhra Pradesh as it did in 2004 and the outcome in Tamil Nadu is now quite unpredictable. While the Congress' likely performance may not be worse than its existing tally, it cannot expect any significant overall gains and its allies are almost certain to suffer reverses, especially in Bihar.

Meanwhile, the UPA's principal prop, the Left parties, are rightly worried about their electoral fate. Although his comrades from Kerala have vocally supported Prakash Karat in the party's decision-making bodies, the CPM is facing its worst prospects ever in that State. Factionalism is so rampant that not a day passes without rival groups broadcasting alleged scandals against each other. In the event of an overt or even covert understanding between Mamata Banerjee and the Congress in Bengal - a prospect that may materialise once the UPA-Left arrangement formally collapses - the Left cannot hope for the kind of walkover it has enjoyed in recent years. Seasoned Left leaders appear reconciled to their combined strength in the Lok Sabha dropping from the present 59 to 40 or less. But to Prakash Karat's credit, he remains convinced that ideology must take precedence over proximity to power. And who knows, post-election the Congress may again be forced to court the Left for support and next time the Communists will drive an even harder bargain irrespective of the number of seats they command.

Where does that leave the BJP and the already fragmented NDA? Unfortunately, the party's internal instability has prevented it from positioning itself as the Government-in-waiting. Admittedly, at this point in time the BJP does not exude the confidence expected of a party staking claim to power in Delhi. However, contrary to pollsters and armchair analysts, people do not make electoral decisions on the basis of TV debates. The BJP's organisational base remains intact even if the leadership has failed to fully harness popular resentment against the UPA's indifferent performance - strong on statistics but woefully poor on delivery. Barring UP, which has become a two-horse race between regional outfits the BJP's prospects are not as bad as sections of the media would have us believe. A big win in Gujarat, which I am convinced in on the cards, will boost the morale of the rank and file just in time for the likely Lok Sabha poll early next year.

Yet, an issueless election can throw up totally unexpected results. Already, politicians are speculating whether the wild card entry at the next poll, Ms Mayawati, could emerge as front-runner for Race Course Road. An unlikely denouement, but the progressive fracturing of the electoral mandate can throw all careful calculations of political and astrological pundits out of the window.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, September 09, 2007