After US President-elect Barack Obama did not include our Prime Minister in the first list of world leaders he called after his historic victory, South Block was at pains to explain that nothing much should be read into it. The 'missed call' materialised this week, and Mr Obama and Mr Manmohan Singh exchanged pleasantries. It has been suggested that the 'missed call' was unintended on Mr Obama's part, but it may not have been necessarily so.

Perceptive observers in New Delhi believe that Mr Obama makes every move after considerable thought. This has been gleaned from his campaign during which he first beat his opponents within the Democratic Party and then his Republican rival, scoring over them at every stage. Mr Obama has secured more votes than anyone else in American history and an individual voter majority of 52 per cent; he has also secured the support of 68 per cent new voters. That means, after taking charge as President of the US in January, he will be speaking with the bulk of his nation behind him. Already his slogan, "Yes, we can!" has become some sort of a mantra.

Never mind the brouhaha in the Indian media over the appointment of an American of Indian origin in Mr Obama's transition team, it is his larger policy, which he has promised to his voters, on the Pakistan-Afghanistan situation that should worry us. He has backed the assessment of the US Central Command chief, Gen David Petraeus, that the present Government of President Hamid Karzai in Kabul cannot be kept in power only by American and allied military means, and that the US must try talking to the more moderate elements in the Taliban to isolate Al Qaeda, which is the real target of the US-led post-9/11 initiative in Afghanistan.

The additional measures that Mr Obama's team seems to be planning in this direction are ominous to say the least. According to Gen Petraeus, the interior areas beyond Kabul have become restive and Taliban gangs are taking advantage of the situation. Even the newly-built Kabul-Kandhahar highway is not safe from the Taliban and Al Qaeda marauders. A report on Afghanistan in Time says passenger buses are being stopped on the highway and passengers shot for their alleged cooperation with the Karzai Government.

Given Afghanistan's huge landmass and difficult terrain, the country needs 6,00,000 troops to maintain law and order. The US-led Nato contingent is only 65,000 strong. During the election campaign, Mr Obama spoke of moving more US and allied troops into Afghanistan and reducing by half the present 1,30,000 American troops in Iraq. Gen Petraeus is expected to be inducted into Mr Obama's presidential team and attempts made to push Pakistan into waging a serious war against Al Qaeda and the Karzai Government to work out a peace deal with moderate elements in the Taliban.

To achieve these ends, the Obama Administration is likely to persuade India to strike a deal with Pakistan on Jammu & Kashmir. Mr Obama has already spoken of a proposal to appoint former President Bill Clinton as his special representative to the sub-continent.

If this were to happen, it would be a serious development that would once again drag Jammu & Kashmir into the international arena. In expectation of this to happen, separatists in Jammu & Kashmir and their patrons are celebrating Mr Obama's victory. Policy-makers in New Delhi fear that the Obama Administration will not hesitate to leverage the India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement to get India to toe the American line. The apprehension of the BJP over the nuclear deal would then come true.

Moreover, if the Obama Administration were to actually move ahead with its Pakistan-Afghanistan policy of getting Islamabad to act tough with Al Qaeda while Kabul talks to moderate elements in the Taliban, it would run counter to India's interests. Such a policy would no doubt restore Pakistan's strategic depth in Afghanistan but scuttle India's efforts to make its presence felt in that country. This is the real danger of the Obama Administration cutting a deal in Afghanistan to isolate and eliminate Al Qaeda: Sections of the India-hating Taliban would be sharing power in Kabul. If India resists such a move, the US will read out the rulebook on the nuclear deal.

Yet another cloud on the horizon is Mr Obama's economic philosophy and the possible rise of protectionism in the US in the wake of the present recession. Mr Obama has been strongly urging the adoption of trade policies that would retain jobs in the US. He has also advocated concessions that would help American industry to meet the challenge of foreign competition instead of shifting manufacturing and services abroad.

His statement in the context of NAFTA serves as a pointer to what he plans to do: "We can, and must, make trade work for American workers by opening up foreign markets to US goods and maintaining strong environmental and labour standards." If this becomes general policy for the new Administration, India should expect issues of child labour, sweat shops and human rights to be raised by the US periodically to curb trade and outsourcing. At a time when India is suffering a steep deceleration of exports and the leading outsourcing firms are fearful of leaner order books, Mr Singh's hopes of pushing growth to nine per cent by 2010 could take an early blow.

During the long election campaign, Mr Obama was constantly trying to win over Indian Americans - he carried a Hanuman idol to the party nomination convention; he appointed Indian-American professionals to his campaign team; and, he addressed India specific questions to Indian origin audiences - there was no such out-of-the-box response from the Congress leaders. The Congress, having abandoned bipartisan consensus on foreign policy, as exemplified by the nuclear deal, was totally focussed on President George W Bush. Now that Mr Obama has won so overwhelmingly and decisively, perhaps we should forgive him for ignoring Mr Singh while appreciating the talent and culture of Indians. The problem arises because India will have to pay the bill for the follies of its current rulers.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, November 14, 2008